China's coalbed methane (CBM) output is expected to increase tenfold over the next two decades, state media reported on Sunday.

China's CBM production will reach 90 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/y) by 2030, Yuan Liang, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, was cited as saying on Sunday by the state-run China News Service.

That figure would represent some 87 percent of the 103 bcm of gas produced in China last year and also a tenfold increase from the 9 bcm of CBM extracted in 2010. The central government's 12th Five-Year CBM Development Plan has targeted 30 bcm/y of methane output by 2015.

Most of China's CBM output is extracted from coal mines, with the bulk of the gas either discharged into the atmosphere or flared. More than 70 percent of Chinese coal mines contain high levels of methane, which is explosive when mixed with air, and its presence leads to many accidents, Yuan said at the opening ceremony of the 4th China International Energy Industry Expo in Taiyuan, capital of Shanxi Province, according to the state media report.

Despite the dangers, there remains strong potential for China to increase CBM output as the country's proven reserves account for just one percent of total resources, said Yuan, who is also Director of the National Engineering Research Center for Coal Gas Management.

China's geological CBM resources are the third-largest in the world behind Russia and Canada at 36.8 trillion cubic meters, which corresponds to some 280 years of Chinese gas supply at 2011's consumption rate.

The 90 bcm forecast may be attainable as key factors such as technology, policy and the market will have time to advance and mature over the next 20 years, Kevin Wu, an analyst with Shanxi Fenwei Energy Consulting Co., told Interfax on Monday.

China's CBM policies still need fine-tuning, Yuan said, adding that development of the industry would proceed much quicker if more incentives were introduced. Yuan's comments echo those of Li Liang, Deputy Chief Economist for China United CBM, who said in August that state incentives introduced to lift CBM production are not achieving the desired effect.

Beijing should double the existing CBM production subsidy to more than RMB 0.4 ($0.06) per cubic meter and expand existing tax breaks, Liang said at the China Unconventional Gas Congress.

CBM is a better option than shale gas for meeting China's future energy demand as the Chinese CBM industry has been in development for longer, Tang Tingchuan, director of development strategy at China National Petroleum Corp.'s Policy Research Office, said last month.

Wu said that China would need to exploit both unconventional resources simultaneously to reduce dependence on energy imports.