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Natural Gas Consumption Growth Below Average

Pubdate:2012-06-19 11:47 Source:lijing Click:

World primary energy consumption grew by 2.5 percent in 2011, roughly in line with the 10-year average. All of the net growth took place in emerging economies, with China alone accounting for 71 percent of global energy consumption growth, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2012).

OECD consumption declined, led by a sharp decline in Japan - in volumetric terms, the world's largest decline.

Energy price developments were mixed. Oil prices for the year exceeded $100 for the first time ever (in money-of-the-day terms) and inflation-adjusted prices were the second-highest on record, behind only 1864.The BP report said natural gas prices in Europe and Asia - including spot markets and those indexed to oil - increased broadly in line with oil prices, although movements within the year varied widely.Coal prices increased in all regions.

The report said consumption in OECD countries fell by 0.8 percent, the third decline in the past four years. Non-OECD consumption grew by 5.3 percent, in line with the 10-year average. Global consumption growth decelerated in 2011 for all fuels, as did total energy consumption for all regions. Oil remains the world's leading fuel, at 33.1 percent of global energy consumption, but oil continued to lose market share for the twelfth consecutive year and its current market share is the lowest in our data set, which begins in 1965.

Dated Brent averaged $111.26 per barrel in 2011, an increase of 40 percent from the 2010 level. The loss of Libyan supplies early in the year, combined with smaller disruptions in a number of other countries, pushed prices sharply higher despite a large increase in production among other OPEC members following the Libyan outages and a release of strategic stocks from International Energy Agency member countries.

Global oil consumption grew by a below-average 0.6 million bpd, or 0.7 percent, to reach 88 million bpd. This was once again the weakest global growth rate among fossil fuels. OECD consumption declined by 1.2 percent (600,000 bpd), the fifth decrease in the past six years, reaching the lowest level since 1995. Outside the OECD, consumption grew by 1.2 million bpd, or 2.8 percent. Despite strong oil prices, oil consumption growth was below average in producing regions of the Middle East and Africa due to regional unrest.

China again recorded the largest increment to global consumption growth (+505,000 bpd, +5.5 percent) although the growth rate was below the 10-year average. Middle distillates were again the fastest-growing refined product category by volume, for the seventh time in the past 10 years.

Annual global oil production increased by 1.1 million bpd, or 1.3 percent, the BP report said. Virtually all of the net growth was in OPEC, with large increases in Saudi Arabia (+1.2 million bpd), the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq more than offsetting a loss of Libyan supply (-1.2 million bpd). Output reached record levels in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. Non-OPEC output was broadly flat, with increases in the US, Canada, Russia and Colombia offsetting continued declines in mature provinces such as the UK and Norway, as well as unexpected outages in a number of other countries.

The US (+285,000 bpd) had the largest increase among non-OPEC producers for the third consecutive year. Driven by continued strong growth in onshore production of shale liquids, US output reached the highest level since 1998.Global refinery crude runs increased by a below-average 375,000 bpd, or 0.5 percent. Non-OECD countries accounted for all the net increase, rising by 685,000 bpd.

While OECD throughput declined by 310,000 bpd, US throughput increased (+110,000 bpd) and the US became a net exporter of refined products for the first time on record. Global refinery capacity utilization fell to 81.2 percent as global refining capacity increased by 1.4 million bpd (+1.5 percent), outpacing growth in throughputs for the fifth time in six years.

The BP Statistical Review said global oil trade in 2011 grew by 2 percent, or 1.1 million bpd. At 54.6 million bpd, trade accounted for 62 percent of global consumption, up from 58 percent a decade ago. China accounted for roughly two-thirds of the growth in trade last year, with net imports (6 million bpd) rising by 13 percent. US net imports were 29 percent below their 2005 peak.

Middle East countries accounted for 81 percent of the growth in exports last year. While crude oil accounted for 70 percent of global trade in 2011, refined products accounted for two-thirds of the growth in global trade last year.

World natural gas consumption grew by 2.2 percent. Consumption growth was below average in all regions except North America, where low prices drove robust growth. Outside North America, the largest volumetric gains in consumption were in China (+21.5 percent), Saudi Arabia (+13.2 percent) and Japan (+11.6 percent). These increases were partly offset by the largest decline on record in EU gas consumption (-9.9 percent), driven by a weak economy, high gas prices, warm weather and continued growth in renewable power generation.

Global natural gas production grew by 3.1 percent. The US (+7.7 percent) recorded the largest volumetric increase despite lower gas prices, and remained the world's largest producer. Output also grew rapidly in Qatar (+25.8 percent), Russia (+3.1 percent) and Turkmenistan (+40.6 percent), more than offsetting declines in Libya (-75.6 percent) and the UK (-20.8 percent). As was the case for consumption, the EU recorded the largest decline in gas production on record (-11.4 percent), due to a combination of mature fields, maintenance, and weak regional consumption.

Following the general weakness of gas consumption growth, global natural gas trade increased by a relatively modest 4 percent in 2011.

LNG shipments grew by 10.1 percent, with Qatar (+34.8 percent) accounting for virtually all (87.7 percent) of the increase. Among LNG importers, the largest volumetric growth was in Japan and the UK. LNG now accounts for 32.3 percent of global gas trade.

Pipeline shipments grew by just 1.3 percent, with declines in imports by Germany, the UK, the US and Italy offsetting increases in China (from Turkmenistan), Ukraine (from Russia), and Turkey (from Russia and Iran), the report said.

Coal consumption grew by 5.4 percent in 2011. Coal now accounts for 30.3 percent of global energy consumption, the highest share since 1969.

Consumption outside the OECD rose by an above-average 8.4 percent, led by Chinese consumption growth of 9.7 percent.

OECD consumption declined by 1.1 percent with losses in the US and Japan offsetting growth in Europe.

The BP report said global coal production grew by 6.1 percent, with non-OECD countries accounting for virtually all of the growth and China (+8.8 percent) accounting for 69 percent of global growth.

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